Friday, March 12, 2010

Modern Warfare 2: The Importance of First Blood

I started doing full game's to determine winning probabilities. In that time, I began wondering "why do games say who gets first blood?" "Why does it matter?" So, I started to, along with all the other stuff I gather, mark which team got first blood and whether or not they win the match. I wasn't too startled by the results but it is intriguing. I found that about 63% of the time, the team that get's first blood goes on to win the game. 

Why would first blood matter that much? How can it have that much predictive power? One hypothesis I thought of was that the more "skilled" player in the match gets first blood and this person contributes a lot to his team and the team ends up winning. 


Sixty-three percent doesn't seem like much, but it is. If you knew that a coin was biased to its "heads" side 63% of the time, you would be a fool not to pick heads every time because in the long run, you'd be way ahead.

You can take this at a grain of salt, but it sure is interesting and if you were to make bets with your friends after seeing who gets first blood, you could make some money.

In my data, the team that got first blood won 66/104 times.

What are your thoughts as to why this is so?

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