Modern Warfare 2: Search and Destroy

For those of you interested, here is a post by a guy that I read often. In this post, he explains those "must win games" in a series. While he uses an NHL example, because the series is a best of seven, it can be easily applied to a Search and Destroy match (best of seven). He shows that the most crucial game is in fact game seven of a 3-3 match, while the next most important match is the 6th game of a 3-2 match.



Click here for the analysis.

Modern Warfare 2: Map Breakdown

Ever feel like you're playing the same maps over and over again with no end in sight? Well, I did. So, after looking around the web for the probabilities of each map to play, I decided to take things into my own hands. Currently, I only have 53 data points for this but for now, it'll suffice. I'll be adding onto it with the more data I get. Right now, it seems that Scrapyard comes in #1 at 17% while Invasion and Terminal are tied for second at 11%. Below is a neat little pie chart for the rest of them as of right now.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Winning Probability

I think it would be pretty cool to be able to determine a winning percentage based on the score at any given time in a match. For instance, with 5 minutes left in a Team Deathmatch, Team 1 has a score of 4500 and Team 2 has a score of 4000, through the sample's I will be able to determine a winning percentage based on that (and all times and scores). Say, that through the samples a team with a 500 point lead (Team 1) with 5 minutes left to go in a match, they have a 55% chance of actually winning the game.

Example 2: Team 1 has a 1000 (6000 to 5000) point lead with :30 left to go. Their winning percentage is probably much more higher, maybe around 95% (I'm just assuming, I don't have all the data I need) (with nukes and other last minute killstreak rewards etc... accounting for the 5% Team 2 could win.)